Fractal
People and their systems are fractal. Meaning…
If you can’t imagine what is really happening or why, just imagine a person that would act that way.
Therefore there are a couple ways to avoid mistakes in action.
Study history and try to not make the mistakes that others have made, while building situations that lead to the outcomes that worked out well.
Experience and interact with many people from all walks of life, and distill understanding of how people really act in different situations.